2023 Home Run Derby Odds, Picks, Bracket: Will Julio Rodriguez Win the Derby in His Home Park?

The 2023 Home Run Derby is set for Monday night and features another loaded field. Seattle Mariners outfielder Julio Rodriguez will be the hometown favorite and face two-time champion Pete Alonso in the first round of the eight-man bracket. Alonso wanted to win at BetMGM.

The derby starts at 8 p.m. ET and will be broadcast on ESPN, ESPN2 (Statcast) and the ESPN app if you want to stream the event.

Juan Soto won the 2022 Home Run Derby by defeating two-time defending champion Pete Alonso in last year’s semifinals, 31-23. He defeated Rodriguez 19-18 in the final. Let’s see Rodriguez and Alonso face each other in the first round of the 2023 Home Run Derby. This will be Alonso’s fourth time competing in the derby. Only David Ortiz and Albert Pujols have competed more.

White Sox outfielder Louis Roberts Jr. is the No. 1 seed by who hit the most home runs on July 4. , the defending champion should always get the No. 1 seed. Let’s face it, seeding doesn’t matter in this tournament.

This will be Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s second appearance in the Home Run Derby. In 2019, he set the record for most home runs in a single round with 40 at Progressive Field in Cleveland, and the record for most home runs in the Derby with 91 in a loss to Alonso in the finals.

Although T-Mobile Park has a retractable roof, it is not a domed stadium with an open outfield. It was similar to what we saw at Marlins Park in 2017, and the exterior windows were open, including a 500-plus-foot home run that night despite some monster home runs with the roof off. I can’t confirm whether the roof opens or closes.

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The forecast for Seattle on Monday calls for 5-7 mph winds of 70 degrees during the home run derby, which shouldn’t affect things too much. How far does the low temperature ball travel? It’s leaning toward MLB keeping the roof open given the perfect weather for the event.

2023 Home Run Derby Odds

All odds from BetMGM updated Monday afternoon.

Longest home run streak

The record for longest home run is set at 489.5 feet. No home run at T-Mobile Park in the Statcast era went more than 470 feet. Blast by Mike Zunino He landed in the second-to-last row in the left field bleachers. Fewer than 10 players have hit a home run into the left field bleachers at T-Mobile Park.

Shohei Ohtani absolutely destroyed this ball last season against the Mariners. Statcast predicts a height of 463 feet.


More than 10 home runs went over 500 feet at Coors Field in 2021, but that was at altitude, and balls are not usually kept in the humidity at Coors Field. Soto hit the longest home run in last year’s contest at 482 feet.

Because of the temperature and lack of wind, I hunkered down here. If the roof is open, it will be difficult for the balls to fly far.

2023 Home Run Derby Bracket

Robert was the favorite in the first round, while Guerrero was the second-biggest favorite despite being seeded 6th against Betts.

(1) Lewis Robert Jr. (-215) vs. (8) Atlee Rutchman (+175)

(4) Adolis Garcia (-140) vs. (5) Randy Arosarena (+115)

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(2) Pete Alonso (-170) vs. (7) Julio Rodriguez (+140)

(6) Wladimir Guerrero Jr. (-210) vs. (3) Mookie Betts (+170)

Home Run Derby Expert Picks

Winner: Randy Arosarena

Arosa Arena has a career year with an average exit velocity of 92.7 mph. He barreled 14.8 percent of his balls. He will be the overlooked player in this tournament, with Alonso and Rodriguez stealing the headlines. The Arosa Arena is a showman, and what greater stage is there for an individual in baseball than the Home Run Derby?

274.5 over/under home runs

With the weather and T-Mobile Park being in the middle of Home Run Stadium, I’d go here. Hit totals refer to how many home runs the first baseman hit in each matchup. Last year we saw some lower totals in the semifinals and championships.

League wins: American (-300), National (+220)

Give me the American League because I’m only betting against Pete Alonso and Mookie Betts.

(Photo by Julio Rodriguez: Susana Mitchell/San Francisco Giants/Getty Images)

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