According to an 11 a.m. Saturday update from the National Hurricane Center, Tropical Storm Beryl is forecast to become a “dangerous major hurricane” with sustained winds of 115 mph as it crosses the Caribbean Sea.
The Hurricane Center on Saturday revised its forecast sharply upward for the storm’s strength, saying the storm’s structure had become more compact and it was “likely to intensify rapidly given the low wind shear conditions.”
“Beryl will rapidly strengthen into a major hurricane as it reaches the Windward Islands late Sunday night or Monday, bringing destructive hurricane-force winds and life-threatening storm surge,” the hurricane center said.
Hurricane watches went into effect across the eastern Caribbean, with the islands facing the first hurricanes of what is expected to be a very active hurricane season.
By Wednesday, the storm is expected to encounter unfavorable atmospheric conditions, with high crosswinds weakening it.
As of 2 p.m. Saturday, the storm was 785 miles east-southeast of Barbados and moving west at 23 mph. Its top winds were 65 mph, and tropical-storm-force winds extended 45 miles from its center.
A hurricane watch is in effect for Barbados and additional watches and warnings will be required for parts of the region later today. Beryl is expected to become a hurricane before reaching the Windward Islands.
Eastward development in late June was unusual, hurricane center forecasters said. “In fact, only a handful of storms in history have formed over the central or eastern tropical Atlantic this early in the year.”
Beryl does not affect South Florida.
Meanwhile, the Hurricane Center is tracking two other systems.
A tropical wave may develop in the eastern Atlantic several hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, but is currently experiencing scattered showers and thunderstorms.
“Some slower development of this system is possible next week, generally moving westward at 15 to 20 mph across the central and western tropical Atlantic,” forecasters said.
There is a 60% chance of developing in the next seven days.
Also, a tropical wave that had already moved across the Caribbean and westward toward Mexico was downgraded despite producing widespread rain and thunderstorm activity.
“The disturbance … is expected to move westward over the Yucatan Peninsula and emerge over the Bay of Campeche late Saturday or early Sunday, with some development possible at that time,” forecasters said.
During that time, as the system moves toward central Mexico, it may develop into a tropical depression.
Heavy rain is expected to further affect parts of Central America and Mexico over the weekend.
There is a 40% chance of developing in the next seven days.
The next named storm is Chris.
The western Gulf of Mexico produced its first tropical storm of the 2024 season last week. The system, known as Alberto, made landfall in Mexico about 250 miles south of the U.S. border, but sent storm surge and flooding as far as 500 miles away in Louisiana.
The 2024 hurricane season, which officially began on June 1, is expected to be very active.
In its annual May outlook, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said the 2024 hurricane season has an 85% chance of being above normal, with 17 to 25 named storms with winds of at least 39 mph and 8 to 13 hurricanes. An average year has 14 named storms and seven hurricanes.
Additionally, NOAA is forecasting four to seven major hurricanes for 2024, meaning Category 3 or higher.
In their 2024 forecast, experts from Colorado State University said there is a 34% chance of a major hurricane making landfall this year along the US East Coast, including Florida. The average from 1880-2020 is 21%.
Forecasters say the record-warm water temperatures currently covering much of the Atlantic Ocean will continue into August through October, the peak hurricane season. That warm water fuels hurricanes. By early June, the tropical Atlantic was already as warm as usual in mid-August – peak hurricane season.
Hurricane season officially ends on November 30.
