8:47 pm ET, January 23, 2024
Analysis: Haley had an epic New Hampshire upset. The government has done so in the past
Analysis by Zachary B. Wolf
Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley wanted an unexpected win in New Hampshire. It would have been an epic mess. He trailed, often by a significant margin, in pre-primary polls, and CNN predicted a victory for former President Donald Trump shortly after the last New Hampshire poll.
Not the least of which was his first victory as a candidate, when Trump's victory in New Hampshire in 2016 proved his political power by defying conventional wisdom.
After-Sen. John McCain Blew towards victory In New Hampshire in 2000, then-Texas Governor George W. It gave Bush's dominant campaign a little scare.
But in New Hampshire, especially for incumbents, anything less than a win would matter. CNN predicts President Joe Biden will win the primary with a write-in campaign.
New Hampshire ended 2 current re-election campaigns
- Former President Lyndon B. Johnson withdrew from the 1968 reelection campaign after narrowly winning the New Hampshire primary. The Democrats lost the general election that year.
- In 1952, the first modern New Hampshire primary, ex-pres Harry Truman He dropped out of the presidential primary shortly after losing to then-Sen. Estes Kefauver, though held by Truman Not actively campaigning For re-election. The Democrats also lost the general election that year.
The New Hampshire difficulty foreshadowed another current loss
- Although in office, Bush's father, George H.W. Bush, Only narrowly successful In New Hampshire in 1992, Pat survived Buchanan's challenge. The elder Bush lost his re-election battle to Bill Clinton.
- Clinton finished second only in New Hampshire, but she called it her “Baby again.”
- Hillary Clinton turned her presidential campaign around in New Hampshire in 2008, surprising Barack Obama after her big win in Iowa and pulling out that year's primary. But in 2016, the year he was the Democratic nominee in New Hampshire, Sen. Losing to Bernie Sanders – an independent senator from nearby Vermont, he also won the New Hampshire Democratic primary in 2020, despite losing the nomination to Biden that same year.